Grave Consequences Sub Download

Grave Consequences Sub Download

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Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Thursday that Western plans to introduce oil price caps could have "grave consequences" for energy markets during a telephone conversation with Iraq's prime minister.

"Vladimir Putin stressed that such actions are contrary to the principles of market relations and are highly likely to lead to grave consequences for global energy markets," the Kremlin said in a readout of the Russian leader's call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

The probability of a sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean5 during summer is substantially higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence). Model simulations suggest that at least one sea-ice-free Arctic summer is expected every 10 years for global warming of 2°C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years under 1.5°C (medium confidence). An intermediate temperature overshoot will have no long- term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage, and hysteresis is not expected (high confidence). {3.3.8, 3.4.4.7}

Any increase in global temperature (e.g., +0.5°C) is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences (high confidence). Lower risks are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C for heat-related morbidity and mortality (very high confidence), and for ozone-related mortality if emissions needed for ozone formation remain high (high confidence). Urban heat islands often amplify the impacts of heatwaves in cities (high confidence). Risks for some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever are projected to increase with warming from 1.5°C to 2°C, including potential shifts in their geographic range (high confidence). Overall for vector- borne diseases, whether projections are positive or negative depends on the disease, region and extent of change (high confidence). Lower risks of undernutrition are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C (medium confidence). Incorporating estimates of adaptation into projections reduces the magnitude of risks (high confidence). {3.4.7, 3.4.7.1, 3.4.8, 3.5.5.8}

Human society has developed in tandem with the natural environment of the Mediterranean basin over several millennia, laying the groundwork for diverse and culturally rich communities. Even if advances in technology may offer some protection from climatic hazards, the consequences of climatic change for inhabitants of this region continue to depend on the long-term interplay between an array of societal and environmental factors (Holmgren et al., 2016)170. As a result, the Mediterranean is an example of a region with high vulnerability where various adaptation responses have emerged. Previous IPCC assessments and recent publications project regional changes in climate under increased temperatures, including consistent climate model projections of increased precipitation deficit amplified by strong regional warming (Section 3.3.3; Seneviratne et al., 2012; Christensen et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013; Greve and Seneviratne, 2015171 ).

A substantial number of pre-AR5 studies found that there is no indication of hysteresis behaviour of Arctic sea ice under decreasing temperatures following a possible overshoot of a long-term temperature target (Holland et al., 2006; Schröder and Connolley, 2007; Armour et al., 2011; Sedláček et al., 2011; Tietsche et al., 2011; Boucher et al., 2012; Ridley et al., 2012)278. In particular, the relationship between Arctic sea ice coverage and GMST was found to be indistinguishable between a warming scenario and a cooling scenario. These results have been confirmed by post-AR5 studies (Li et al., 2013; Jahn, 2018)279, which implies high confidence that an intermediate temperature overshoot has no long-term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage.

In summary, the probability of a sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer is substantially higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming relative to pre-industrial levels, and there is medium confidence that there will be at least one sea ice-free Arctic summer after about 10 years of stabilized warming at 2°C, while about 100 years are required at 1.5°C. There is high confidence that an intermediate temperature overshoot has no long-term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage with regrowth on decadal time scales.

One of the important themes that emerged from AR5 is that previous assessments may have under-estimated the sensitivity of natural and human systems to climate change. A more recent analysis of attribution to greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale (Hansen and Stone, 2016)370 confirmed that many impacts related to changes in regional atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing, while attribution to anthropogenic forcing of changes related to precipitation are by comparison less clear. Moreover, there is no strong direct relationship between the robustness of climate attribution and that of impact attribution (Hansen and Stone, 2016)371. The observed changes in human systems are amplified by the loss of ecosystem services (e.g., reduced access to safe water) that are supported by biodiversity (Oppenheimer et al., 2014)372. Limited research on the risks of warming of 1.5°C and 2°C was conducted following AR5 for most key economic sectors and services, for livelihoods and poverty, and for rural areas. For these systems, climate is one of many drivers that result in adverse outcomes. Other factors include patterns of demographic change, socio-economic development, trade and tourism. Further, consequences of climate change for infrastructure, tourism, migration, crop yields and other impacts interact with underlying vulnerabilities, such as for individuals and communities engaged in pastoralism, mountain farming and artisanal fisheries, to affect livelihoods and poverty (Dasgupta et al., 2014)373.

While the impacts of species shifting their ranges are mostly negative for human communities and industry, there are instances of short-term gains. Fisheries, for example, may expand temporarily at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere as the extent of summer sea ice recedes and NPP increases (medium confidence) (Cheung et al., 2010; Lam et al., 2016; Weatherdon et al., 2016)569. High-latitude fisheries are not only influenced by the effect of temperature on NPP but are also strongly influenced by the direct effects of changing temperatures on fish and fisheries (Section 3.4.4.9; Barange et al., 2014; Pörtner et al., 2014; Cheung et al., 2016b; Weatherdon et al., 2016570). Temporary gains in the productivity of high-latitude fisheries are offset by a growing number of examples from low and mid-latitudes where increases in sea temperature are driving decreases in NPP, owing to the direct effects of elevated temperatures and/or reduced ocean mixing from reduced ocean upwelling, that is, increased stratification (low-medium confidence) (Cheung et al., 2010; Ainsworth et al., 2011; Lam et al., 2012, 2014, 2016; Bopp et al., 2013; Boyd et al., 2014; Chust et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Poloczanska et al., 2014; Pörtner et al., 2014; Signorini et al., 2015)571. Reduced ocean upwelling has implications for millions of people and industries that depend on fisheries for food and livelihoods (Bakun et al., 2015; FAO, 2016; Kämpf and Chapman, 2016)572, although there is low confidence in the projection of the size of the consequences at 1.5°C. It is also important to appreciate these changes in the context of large-scale ocean processes such as the ocean carbon pump. The export of organic carbon to deeper layers of the ocean increases as NPP changes in the surface ocean, for example, with implications for foodwebs and oxygen levels (Boyd et al., 2014; Sydeman et al., 2014; Altieri and Gedan, 2015; Bakun et al., 2015; Boyd, 2015)573.

Ocean chemistry encompasses a wide range of phenomena and chemical species, many of which are integral to the biology and ecology of the ocean (Section 3.3.10; Gattuso et al., 2014, 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Pörtner et al., 2014)594. While changes to ocean chemistry are likely to be of central importance, the literature on how climate change might influence ocean chemistry over the short and long term is limited (medium confidence). By contrast, numerous risks from the specific changes associated with ocean acidification have been identified (Dove et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013; Pörtner et al., 2014; Gattuso et al., 2015; Albright et al., 2016)595, with the consensus that resulting changes to the carbonate chemistry of seawater are having, and are likely to continue to have, fundamental and substantial impacts on a wide variety of organisms (high confidence). Organisms with shells and skeletons made out of calcium carbonate are particularly at risk, as are the early life history stages of a large number of organisms and processes such as de-calcification, although there are some taxa that have not shown high-sensitivity to changes in CO2, pH and carbonate concentrations (Dove et al., 2013; Fang et al., 2013; Kroeker et al., 2013; Pörtner et al., 2014; Gattuso et al., 2015)596. Risks of these impacts also vary with latitude and depth, with the greatest changes occurring at high latitudes as well as deeper regions. The aragonite saturation horizon (i.e., where concentrations of calcium and carbonate fall below the saturation point for aragonite, a key crystalline form of calcium carbonate) is decreasing with depth as anthropogenic CO2 penetrates deeper into the ocean over time. Under many models and scenarios, the aragonite saturation is projected to reach the surface by 2030 onwards, with a growing list of impacts and consequences for ocean organisms, ecosystems and people (Orr et al., 2005; Hauri et al., 2016)597.

Climate change adversely affects human health by increasing exposure and vulnerability to climate-related stresses, and decreasing the capacity of health systems to manage changes in the magnitude and pattern of climate-sensitive health outcomes (Cramer et al., 2014; Hales et al., 2014)992. Changing weather patterns are associated with shifts in the geographic range, seasonality and transmission intensity of selected climate-sensitive infectious diseases (e.g., Semenza and Menne, 2009)993, and increasing morbidity and mortality are associated with extreme weather and climate events (e.g., K.R. Smith et al., 2014)994. Health detection and attribution studies conducted since AR5 have provided evidence, using multistep attribution, that climate change is negatively affecting adverse health outcomes associated with heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe (Mitchell, 2016; Mitchell et al., 2016; Ebi et al., 2017)995. The IPCC AR5 concluded there is high to very high confidence that climate change will lead to greater risks of injuries, disease and death, owing to more intense heatwaves and fires, increased risks of undernutrition, and consequences of reduced labour productivity in vulnerable populations (K.R. Smith et al., 2014)996. 2b1af7f3a8